Value bet: Arema FC to win @ 2.40 – our chance 47% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultArema FC to win ✗47% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.71
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.87
Persepam Madura Utd vs Arema FC preview and prediction
The match
Persepam Madura Utd host Arema FC in the Liga 1 on Saturday 21 February, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT) at Gelora Ratu Pamelingan Stadium. Persepam Madura Utd are 4th with 19 points from 9 games (in the top four), while Arema FC sit 14th on 9 points (in the bottom half).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.1 for Persepam Madura Utd and 1.4 for Arema FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Arema FC to win at 2.40 – 47% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Persepam Madura Utd 1–1 Arema FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Persepam Madura Utd31%fair 3.20 · @2.55
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.20
Arema FC47%fair 2.13 · @2.40
2.55Expected goals
1.11Persepam Madura Utd xG
1.44Arema FC xG
59%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Persepam Madura Utd 1.1 – 1.4 Arema FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arema FC to win✗
47%
2.13
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.71
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
1.82
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arema FC / FT Arema FC✗
26%
3.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.87
–
Form
Persepam Madura Utd – last 1
D
13 Feb
@ Persis Solo
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Arema FC – last 1
W
15 Feb
vs Semen Padang
3–0
W
3.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Persepam Madura Utd and Arema FC.
What is the prediction for Persepam Madura Utd vs Arema FC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Persepam Madura Utd vs Arema FC?
On our numbers Persepam Madura Utd have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Arema FC 47%.
How many goals will there be in Persepam Madura Utd vs Arema FC?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Persepam Madura Utd vs Arema FC?
Our predicted score is Persepam Madura Utd 1–1 Arema FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Persepam Madura Utd vs Arema FC?
Persepam Madura Utd vs Arema FC (Liga 1) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Gelora Ratu Pamelingan Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Persis Solo1
PSBS Biak Numfor1