Southport host Buxton in the National League North on Tuesday 17 February, with kick-off at 20:45 (WAT) at Haig Avenue. Southport are 23rd with 10 points from 15 games (in the bottom three), while Buxton sit 7th on 27 points (in the top half). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.5 for Southport and 1.5 for Buxton. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Southport 39%, draw 23%, Buxton 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.55.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Southport 1–1 Buxton. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Southport39%fair 2.58 · @2.50
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.30
Buxton38%fair 2.62 · @2.50
2.97Expected goals
1.49Southport xG
1.48Buxton xG
64%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–18%
1–28%
1–08%
0–18%
2–26%
From our goals model: Southport 1.5 – 1.5 Buxton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Southport to win✗
39%
2.58
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.55
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.29
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.40
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.50
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Southport / FT Southport✗
22%
4.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.85
–
Form
Southport
No recent results on record.
Buxton
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Southport and Buxton.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Southport vs Buxton?
On our numbers Southport have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Buxton 38%.
How many goals will there be in Southport vs Buxton?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Southport vs Buxton?
Our predicted score is Southport 1–1 Buxton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Southport vs Buxton?
Southport vs Buxton (National League North) kicks off on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Haig Avenue.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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