Value bet: Spartak Moscow to win @ 1.64 – our chance 66% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSpartak Moscow to win ✗66% · @1.64
Double chanceSpartak Moscow or draw ✗85% · @1.19
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.78
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗12% · fair 8.32
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Krylia Sovetov take on Spartak Moscow on Friday 1 May, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Samara Arena. Krylia Sovetov are 7th with 18 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Spartak Moscow sit 3rd on 29 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Krylia Sovetov's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to FC Sochi 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Spartak Moscow's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Nizhny Novgorod 2–1 away. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Spartak Moscow arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.8 for Krylia Sovetov and 2.0 for Spartak Moscow. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Safer route: Spartak Moscow or draw (85%) at 1.19.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.78.
Value angle: Spartak Moscow to win at 1.64 – 66% on our numbers against 61% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Krylia Sovetov 0–2 Spartak Moscow. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Krylia Sovetov15%fair 6.90 · @5.20
Draw19%fair 5.24 · @4.30
Spartak Moscow66%fair 1.51 · @1.64
2.85Expected goals
0.81Krylia Sovetov xG
2.04Spartak Moscow xG
57%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–212%
0–112%
1–210%
1–110%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Krylia Sovetov 0.8 – 2.0 Spartak Moscow expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spartak Moscow to win✗
66%
1.51
1.64 ▲
Double chance
Spartak Moscow or draw✗
85%
1.17
1.19
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.78
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.81
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.36
Half-time result
Spartak Moscow ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spartak Moscow / FT Spartak Moscow✗
43%
2.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
12%
8.32
–
Form
Krylia Sovetov – last 6
LLLDLW
21 Apr
@ FC Sochi
1–2
L
7 Apr
vs CSKA Moscow
2–5
L
4 Apr
@ Zenit
1–2
L
22 Mar
vs Rubin
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Nizhny Novgorod
0–3
L
8 Mar
vs Dinamo Makhachkala
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Spartak Moscow – last 6
WLWWWW
26 Apr
@ Nizhny Novgorod
2–1
W
23 Apr
vs FC Krasnodar
1–2
L
19 Apr
vs Akhmat
3–1
W
5 Apr
vs Lokomotiv
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ FC Orenburg
2–0
W
18 Mar
vs Dynamo
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow.
What is the prediction for Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
On our numbers Krylia Sovetov have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Spartak Moscow 66%.
How many goals will there be in Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Our predicted score is Krylia Sovetov 0–2 Spartak Moscow, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow?
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow (Premier League) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Samara Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
