Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.25
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Baltika to win @ 1.92 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultBaltika to win61% · @1.92
Double chanceBaltika or draw86% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score52% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals83% · @1.13
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–019% · fair 5.20
Baltika vs Rubin preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Baltika take on Rubin on Saturday 2 May, kicking off at 14:30 (WAT) at Rostec Arena. Baltika are 9th with 17 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Rubin sit 8th on 18 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Baltika's last 5: LDDLL Most recently they lost to Akron 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Rubin's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Dynamo 1–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Rubin arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Baltika and 0.6 for Rubin. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Baltika 61%, draw 25%, Rubin 14%.
Safer route: Baltika or draw (86%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Baltika to win at 1.92 – 61% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Baltika or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Baltika 1–0 Rubin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Baltika61%fair 1.63 · @1.92
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.50
Rubin14%fair 7.18 · @4.40
2.06Expected goals
1.51Baltika xG
0.55Rubin xG
48%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–015%
0–013%
1–111%
2–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Baltika 1.5 – 0.6 Rubin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Baltika to win
61%
1.63
1.92 ▲
Double chance
Baltika or draw
86%
1.16
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
52%
1.94
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
62%
1.61
1.47
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
64%
1.55
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
83%
1.20
1.13
Half-time result
Level at half-time
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Baltika / FT Baltika
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
19%
5.20
–
Form
Baltika – last 6
LDDLLW
27 Apr
vs Akron
0–1
L
23 Apr
@ Akhmat
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Dinamo Makhachkala
2–2
D
3 Mar
vs Zenit
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ Zenit
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Krylia Sovetov
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Rubin – last 6
WWDWWL
22 Apr
@ Dynamo
1–0
W
6 Apr
@ FC Sochi
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ Krylia Sovetov
0–0
D
15 Mar
vs Lokomotiv
3–0
W
8 Mar
vs FC Krasnodar
2–1
W
20 Feb
@ FC Orenburg
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Baltika and Rubin.
Our pick is Baltika or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Baltika vs Rubin?
On our numbers Baltika have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Rubin 14%.
How many goals will there be in Baltika vs Rubin?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Baltika vs Rubin?
Our predicted score is Baltika 1–0 Rubin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Baltika vs Rubin?
Baltika vs Rubin (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Rostec Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
