Value bet: FC Krasnodar to win @ 3.08 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSpartak Moscow to win ✗40% · @2.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.34
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 11.40
Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar preview and prediction
The match
FC Krasnodar travel to Lukoil Arena in the Premier League on Thursday 23 April (17:45 WAT) to face Spartak Moscow. Spartak Moscow are 3rd with 29 points from 14 games (in the top four), while FC Krasnodar sit 4th on 26 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Spartak Moscow's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Akhmat 3–1 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
FC Krasnodar's last 5: DWWLL Most recently they drew with Dynamo 0–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Spartak Moscow arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.4 for Spartak Moscow and 1.4 for FC Krasnodar. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Spartak Moscow 40%, draw 23%, FC Krasnodar 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.67.
Value angle: FC Krasnodar to win at 3.08 – 37% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.26. Predicted score: Spartak Moscow 1–1 FC Krasnodar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Spartak Moscow40%fair 2.50 · @2.35
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.52
FC Krasnodar37%fair 2.71 · @3.08
2.79Expected goals
1.43Spartak Moscow xG
1.36FC Krasnodar xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–06%
From our goals model: Spartak Moscow 1.4 – 1.4 FC Krasnodar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spartak Moscow to win✗
40%
2.50
2.35
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.34
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.26
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spartak Moscow / FT Spartak Moscow✗
23%
4.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
11.40
–
Form
Spartak Moscow – last 6
WWWWWL
19 Apr
vs Akhmat
3–1
W
5 Apr
vs Lokomotiv
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ FC Orenburg
2–0
W
18 Mar
vs Dynamo
1–0
W
9 Mar
vs Akron
4–3
W
5 Mar
@ Dynamo
2–5
L
2.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
FC Krasnodar – last 6
DWWLLW
8 Apr
@ Dynamo
0–0
D
17 Mar
vs CSKA Moscow
4–0
W
14 Mar
@ FC Sochi
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Rubin
1–2
L
4 Mar
@ CSKA Moscow
1–3
L
28 Feb
vs FC Rostov
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spartak Moscow and FC Krasnodar.
What is the prediction for Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.26.
Who will win Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
On our numbers Spartak Moscow have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and FC Krasnodar 37%.
How many goals will there be in Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
Our predicted score is Spartak Moscow 1–1 FC Krasnodar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar?
Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar (Premier League) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Lukoil Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
