Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.59 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.59Odds
2
Value bet: Lokomotiv to win @ 3.78 – our chance 32% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSpartak Moscow to win ✓48% · @1.98
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.31
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.59
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.82
Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Spartak Moscow take on Lokomotiv on Sunday 5 April, kicking off at 17:30 (WAT) at Lukoil Arena. Spartak Moscow are 3rd with 29 points from 14 games (in the top four), while Lokomotiv sit 15th on 11 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Spartak Moscow's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat FC Orenburg 2–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game.
Lokomotiv's last 5: WLDWW Most recently they beat Akron 5–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.6 goals a game.
Spartak Moscow arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 2.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.7 for Spartak Moscow and 1.4 for Lokomotiv. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Lokomotiv to win at 3.78 – 32% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 65% chance at odds of 1.59, above our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Spartak Moscow 1–1 Lokomotiv. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Spartak Moscow48%fair 2.10 · @1.98
Draw20%fair 4.94 · @3.78
Lokomotiv32%fair 3.12 · @3.78
3.09Expected goals
1.73Spartak Moscow xG
1.37Lokomotiv xG
65%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–27%
2–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Spartak Moscow 1.7 – 1.4 Lokomotiv expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spartak Moscow to win✓
48%
2.10
1.98
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.31
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.54
1.59
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
1.19
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.71
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.44
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.58
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spartak Moscow / FT Spartak Moscow✗
28%
3.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
10.82
–
Form
Spartak Moscow – last 6
WWWLWW
22 Mar
@ FC Orenburg
2–0
W
18 Mar
vs Dynamo
1–0
W
9 Mar
vs Akron
4–3
W
5 Mar
@ Dynamo
2–5
L
2 Mar
@ FC Sochi
3–2
W
21 Feb
vs FC Rostov
5–2
W
2.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Lokomotiv – last 5
WLDWW
22 Mar
vs Akron
5–1
W
15 Mar
@ Rubin
0–3
L
9 Mar
vs Akhmat
2–2
D
5 Mar
@ Arsenal Tula
2–1
W
14 Feb
vs Dinamo Samarqand
4–0
W
2.6Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spartak Moscow and Lokomotiv.
What is the prediction for Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.59.
Who will win Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv?
On our numbers Spartak Moscow have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Lokomotiv 32%.
How many goals will there be in Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv?
Our predicted score is Spartak Moscow 1–1 Lokomotiv, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv?
Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Lukoil Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Nizhny Novgorod0