Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.77 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.77Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultCarlisle to win ✗62% · @1.77
Double chanceEither team to win ✗86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.20
Morecambe vs Carlisle preview and prediction
The match
Morecambe host Carlisle in the National League on Monday 6 April, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Mazuma Mobile Stadium.
Form guide
Morecambe's last 5: WLWDW Most recently they beat Rochdale 4–2 away. Goals have not been a problem: 3.4 per game.
Carlisle's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with Gateshead 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.2 for Morecambe and 2.1 for Carlisle. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score in 66% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Carlisle to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.77, above our fair price of 1.61, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Morecambe 1–2 Carlisle. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Morecambe24%fair 4.22 · @3.65
Draw14%fair 7.13 · @3.80
Carlisle62%fair 1.61 · @1.77
3.27Expected goals
1.17Morecambe xG
2.11Carlisle xG
66%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
1–19%
0–28%
0–18%
1–37%
0–36%
From our goals model: Morecambe 1.2 – 2.1 Carlisle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Carlisle to win✗
62%
1.61
1.77 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
86%
1.16
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
66%
1.52
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.62
Half-time result
Carlisle ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Carlisle / FT Carlisle✗
38%
2.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.20
–
Form
Morecambe – last 5
WLWDW
3 Apr
@ Rochdale
4–2
W
25 Mar
vs Hartlepool
2–3
L
3 Mar
@ Wealdstone
3–2
W
25 Feb
@ Gateshead
4–4
D
21 Feb
vs Eastleigh
4–0
W
3.4Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
80%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Carlisle – last 5
DWWLW
3 Apr
vs Gateshead
0–0
D
24 Mar
@ FC Halifax Town
1–0
W
10 Mar
@ Aldershot Town
2–0
W
25 Feb
@ Hartlepool
1–3
L
21 Feb
vs Yeovil Town
3–0
W
1.4Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Morecambe and Carlisle.
Our pick is Carlisle to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.77.
Who will win Morecambe vs Carlisle?
On our numbers Morecambe have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Carlisle 62%.
How many goals will there be in Morecambe vs Carlisle?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Morecambe vs Carlisle?
Our predicted score is Morecambe 1–2 Carlisle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Morecambe vs Carlisle?
Morecambe vs Carlisle (National League) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Mazuma Mobile Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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