Value bet: Rochdale to win @ 1.83 – our chance 62% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRochdale to win ✗62% · @1.83
Double chanceRochdale or draw ✓86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.31
Hartlepool vs Rochdale preview and prediction
The match
The National League sees Hartlepool take on Rochdale on Monday 6 April, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at The Prestige Group Stadium.
Form guide
Hartlepool's last 5: DLWLW Most recently they drew with Scunthorpe 0–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 2.4 conceded.
Rochdale's last 5: LDLWD Most recently they lost to Morecambe 2–4 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 0.8 for Hartlepool and 1.9 for Rochdale. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Rochdale to win at 1.83 – 62% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Hartlepool 0–2 Rochdale. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Hartlepool14%fair 6.97 · @3.95
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.35
Rochdale62%fair 1.62 · @1.83
2.68Expected goals
0.80Hartlepool xG
1.88Rochdale xG
56%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Hartlepool 0.8 – 1.9 Rochdale expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rochdale to win✗
62%
1.62
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Rochdale or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.35
Half-time result
Rochdale ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rochdale / FT Rochdale✗
40%
2.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.31
–
Form
Hartlepool – last 5
DLWLW
3 Apr
@ Scunthorpe
0–0
D
31 Mar
@ Wealdstone
0–7
L
25 Mar
@ Morecambe
3–2
W
3 Mar
vs Sutton Utd
0–2
L
25 Feb
vs Carlisle
3–1
W
1.2Scored / game
2.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Rochdale – last 6
LDLWDW
3 Apr
vs Morecambe
2–4
L
25 Mar
@ Scunthorpe
2–2
D
17 Mar
@ Southend
2–3
L
3 Mar
vs Brackley Town
3–2
W
24 Feb
@ FC Halifax Town
2–2
D
21 Feb
vs Woking
3–0
W
2.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Hartlepool and Rochdale.
What is the prediction for Hartlepool vs Rochdale?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Hartlepool vs Rochdale?
On our numbers Hartlepool have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Rochdale 62%.
How many goals will there be in Hartlepool vs Rochdale?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hartlepool vs Rochdale?
Our predicted score is Hartlepool 0–2 Rochdale, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Hartlepool vs Rochdale?
Hartlepool vs Rochdale (National League) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at The Prestige Group Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Brackley Town1
Braintree0
Morecambe2