Value bet: FC Porto B to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenafiel to win40% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score59% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–011% · fair 9.09
Penafiel vs FC Porto B preview and prediction
The match
FC Porto B travel to Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril in the Segunda Liga on Sunday 26 April (15:30 WAT) to face Penafiel. Penafiel are 1st with 22 points from 10 games (top of the table), while FC Porto B sit 16th on 8 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Penafiel's last 5: WWLDD Most recently they beat Academico Viseu 4–3 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
FC Porto B's last 5: LDWDL Most recently they lost to Leixoes 0–3 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Penafiel arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Penafiel and 1.2 for FC Porto B. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Penafiel 40%, draw 24%, FC Porto B 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.73.
Value angle: FC Porto B to win at 3.00 – 36% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Penafiel 1–1 FC Porto B. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penafiel40%fair 2.52 · @2.28
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.15
FC Porto B36%fair 2.77 · @3.00
2.44Expected goals
1.26Penafiel xG
1.18FC Porto B xG
59%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Penafiel 1.3 – 1.2 FC Porto B expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penafiel to win
40%
2.52
2.28
Double chance
Either team to win
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
59%
1.70
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.43
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
55%
1.83
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
75%
1.33
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penafiel / FT Penafiel
22%
4.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
11%
9.09
–
Form
Penafiel – last 6
WWLDDW
11 Apr
vs Academico Viseu
4–3
W
4 Apr
@ Sporting CP B
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Feirense
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Benfica B
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Felgueiras 1932
0–0
D
16 Feb
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
FC Porto B – last 6
LDWDLW
20 Apr
vs Leixoes
0–3
L
13 Apr
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
1–1
D
6 Apr
vs Chaves
3–0
W
16 Mar
vs Oliveirense
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Maritimo
1–2
L
23 Feb
vs Pacos Ferreira
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penafiel and FC Porto B.
What is the prediction for Penafiel vs FC Porto B?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Penafiel vs FC Porto B?
On our numbers Penafiel have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and FC Porto B 36%.
How many goals will there be in Penafiel vs FC Porto B?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penafiel vs FC Porto B?
Our predicted score is Penafiel 1–1 FC Porto B, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Penafiel vs FC Porto B?
Penafiel vs FC Porto B (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Pacos Ferreira0
Maritimo