Value bet: Portimonense to win @ 3.40 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeixoes to win ✓47% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.57
Leixoes vs Portimonense preview and prediction
The match
Leixoes host Portimonense in the Segunda Liga on Saturday 25 April, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT) at Estádio do Mar. Leixoes are 12th with 11 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Portimonense sit 10th on 14 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Leixoes's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat FC Porto B 3–0 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Portimonense's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Lusitânia Lourosa 3–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.6 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.5 for Leixoes and 1.2 for Portimonense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Portimonense to win at 3.40 – 32% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Leixoes 1–1 Portimonense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leixoes47%fair 2.12 · @2.00
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.40
Portimonense32%fair 3.13 · @3.40
2.66Expected goals
1.50Leixoes xG
1.17Portimonense xG
56%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Leixoes 1.5 – 1.2 Portimonense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leixoes to win✓
47%
2.12
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leixoes / FT Leixoes✗
27%
3.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.57
–
Form
Leixoes – last 6
WDWLLW
20 Apr
@ FC Porto B
3–0
W
6 Apr
@ Torreense
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Pacos Ferreira
3–2
W
14 Mar
@ Academico Viseu
1–3
L
8 Mar
vs União de Leiria
1–4
L
28 Feb
@ Sporting CP B
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Portimonense – last 5
WWLLL
19 Apr
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
3–2
W
3 Apr
@ Oliveirense
2–1
W
16 Mar
@ Torreense
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Academico Viseu
0–1
L
15 Feb
@ Sporting CP B
3–4
L
1.6Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leixoes and Portimonense.
What is the prediction for Leixoes vs Portimonense?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Leixoes vs Portimonense?
On our numbers Leixoes have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Portimonense 32%.
How many goals will there be in Leixoes vs Portimonense?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leixoes vs Portimonense?
Our predicted score is Leixoes 1–1 Portimonense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Leixoes vs Portimonense?
Leixoes vs Portimonense (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Mar.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Academico Viseu