Value bet: Pacos Ferreira to win @ 3.30 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeixoes to win ✓40% · @2.22
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.46
Leixoes vs Pacos Ferreira preview and prediction
The match
Pacos Ferreira travel to Estádio do Mar in the Segunda Liga on Sunday 22 March (16:30 WAT) to face Leixoes.
Form guide
Leixoes's last 4: LLWL Most recently they lost to Academico Viseu 1–3 away. They average 1.0 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Pacos Ferreira's last 3: DLD Most recently they drew with Oliveirense 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.0 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Leixoes and 1.2 for Pacos Ferreira. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Pacos Ferreira to win at 3.30 – 34% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Leixoes 1–1 Pacos Ferreira. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leixoes40%fair 2.49 · @2.22
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.00
Pacos Ferreira34%fair 2.91 · @3.30
2.53Expected goals
1.33Leixoes xG
1.20Pacos Ferreira xG
56%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Leixoes 1.3 – 1.2 Pacos Ferreira expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leixoes to win✓
40%
2.49
2.22
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.77
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leixoes / FT Leixoes✗
23%
4.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.46
–
Form
Leixoes – last 4
LLWL
14 Mar
@ Academico Viseu
1–3
L
8 Mar
vs União de Leiria
1–4
L
28 Feb
@ Sporting CP B
1–0
W
20 Feb
vs Vizela
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Pacos Ferreira – last 3
DLD
1 Mar
vs Oliveirense
0–0
D
23 Feb
@ FC Porto B
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Torreense
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leixoes and Pacos Ferreira.
What is the prediction for Leixoes vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Leixoes vs Pacos Ferreira?
On our numbers Leixoes have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Pacos Ferreira 34%.
How many goals will there be in Leixoes vs Pacos Ferreira?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leixoes vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our predicted score is Leixoes 1–1 Pacos Ferreira, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Leixoes vs Pacos Ferreira?
Leixoes vs Pacos Ferreira (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Mar.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
