Value bet: Chaves to win @ 2.94 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultChaves to win39% · @2.94
Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–28% · fair 12.72
Vizela vs Chaves preview and prediction
The match
Chaves travel to Estádio Do Vizela in the Segunda Liga on Saturday 28 February (16:30 WAT) to face Vizela. Vizela are 9th with 15 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Chaves sit 17th on 8 points (in the bottom three).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Vizela and 1.2 for Chaves. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vizela 36%, draw 25%, Chaves 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Chaves to win at 2.94 – 39% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Vizela 1–1 Chaves. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vizela36%fair 2.78 · @2.38
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.05
Chaves39%fair 2.54 · @2.94
2.31Expected goals
1.12Vizela xG
1.19Chaves xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Vizela 1.1 – 1.2 Chaves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chaves to win
39%
2.54
2.94 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
75%
1.33
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
54%
1.84
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.48
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.74
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
77%
1.29
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chaves / FT Chaves
21%
4.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
8%
12.72
–
Form
Vizela – last 2
WL
20 Feb
@ Leixoes
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Maritimo
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Chaves – last 2
WL
22 Feb
vs Farense
2–0
W
14 Feb
@ Feirense
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vizela and Chaves.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Vizela vs Chaves?
On our numbers Vizela have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Chaves 39%.
How many goals will there be in Vizela vs Chaves?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vizela vs Chaves?
Our predicted score is Vizela 1–1 Chaves, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Vizela vs Chaves?
Vizela vs Chaves (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Do Vizela.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
