Value bet: Felgueiras 1932 to win @ 1.82 – our chance 65% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFelgueiras 1932 to win ✗65% · @1.82
Double chanceFelgueiras 1932 or draw ✓87% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.99
Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda Liga sees Felgueiras 1932 take on Penafiel on Sunday 22 February, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT) at Stadion Dr. Machado de Matos. Felgueiras 1932 are 15th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Penafiel sit 1st on 22 points (top of the table). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for Felgueiras 1932 and 0.6 for Penafiel. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 52%.
Safer route: Felgueiras 1932 or draw (87%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Felgueiras 1932 to win at 1.82 – 65% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Felgueiras 1932 1–0 Penafiel. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Felgueiras 193265%fair 1.54 · @1.82
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.30
Penafiel13%fair 7.91 · @4.20
2.34Expected goals
1.74Felgueiras 1932 xG
0.61Penafiel xG
52%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–110%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Felgueiras 1932 1.7 – 0.6 Penafiel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Felgueiras 1932 to win✗
65%
1.54
1.82 ▲
Double chance
Felgueiras 1932 or draw✓
87%
1.14
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.46
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.77
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Half-time result
Felgueiras 1932 ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Felgueiras 1932 / FT Felgueiras 1932✗
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.99
–
Form
Felgueiras 1932
No recent results on record.
Penafiel – last 1
W
16 Feb
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Felgueiras 1932 and Penafiel.
What is the prediction for Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
On our numbers Felgueiras 1932 have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Penafiel 13%.
How many goals will there be in Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
Our predicted score is Felgueiras 1932 1–0 Penafiel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Dr. Machado de Matos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Academico Viseu1