Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Farense to win @ 3.15 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultChaves to win ✓39% · @2.26
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.09
Chaves vs Farense preview and prediction
The match
Farense travel to Estadio Municipal de Chaves in the Segunda Liga on Sunday 22 February (15:00 WAT) to face Chaves. Chaves are 17th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Farense sit 8th on 15 points (in the top half).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Chaves and 1.1 for Farense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Chaves 39%, draw 25%, Farense 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Farense to win at 3.15 – 35% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Chaves 1–1 Farense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chaves39%fair 2.55 · @2.26
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.00
Farense35%fair 2.82 · @3.15
2.23Expected goals
1.15Chaves xG
1.08Farense xG
56%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Chaves 1.2 – 1.1 Farense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chaves to win✓
39%
2.55
2.26
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chaves / FT Chaves✓
21%
4.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.09
–
Form
Chaves – last 1
L
14 Feb
@ Feirense
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Farense
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chaves and Farense.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Chaves vs Farense?
On our numbers Chaves have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Farense 35%.
How many goals will there be in Chaves vs Farense?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chaves vs Farense?
Our predicted score is Chaves 1–1 Farense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Chaves vs Farense?
Chaves vs Farense (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Chaves.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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