Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 55% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBenfica to win ✗69% · @1.21
Double chanceBenfica or draw ✓86% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.05
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.26
Casa Pia vs Benfica preview and prediction
The match
Casa Pia host Benfica in the Primeira Liga on Monday 6 April, with kick-off at 20:45 (WAT) at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior. Casa Pia are 16th with 8 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Benfica sit 2nd on 28 points (in the top four). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Casa Pia's last 3: LDL Most recently they lost to Estrela 0–4 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Benfica's last 5: DWLLW Most recently they drew with FC Porto 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Benfica arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.4 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 0.8 for Casa Pia and 2.2 for Benfica. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 60% and both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Casa Pia 14%, draw 17%, Benfica 69%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.05 – 55% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Benfica to win – a 69% chance at odds of 1.21. Predicted score: Casa Pia 0–2 Benfica. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Casa Pia14%fair 6.94 · @13.50
Draw17%fair 6.01 · @5.80
Benfica69%fair 1.45 · @1.21
2.99Expected goals
0.83Casa Pia xG
2.16Benfica xG
55%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–212%
0–111%
1–210%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Casa Pia 0.8 – 2.2 Benfica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Benfica to win✗
69%
1.45
1.21
Double chance
Benfica or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.60
Half-time result
Benfica ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Benfica / FT Benfica✗
44%
2.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.26
–
Form
Casa Pia – last 3
LDL
20 Mar
@ Estrela
0–4
L
1 Mar
vs Moreirense
1–1
D
23 Feb
@ Famalicao
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Benfica – last 5
DWLLW
8 Mar
vs FC Porto
2–2
D
2 Mar
@ GIL Vicente
2–1
W
25 Feb
@ Real Madrid
1–2
L
17 Feb
vs Real Madrid
0–1
L
13 Feb
@ Santa Clara
2–1
W
1.4Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Casa Pia and Benfica.
Our pick is Benfica to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.21.
Who will win Casa Pia vs Benfica?
On our numbers Casa Pia have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Benfica 69%.
How many goals will there be in Casa Pia vs Benfica?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Our predicted score is Casa Pia 0–2 Benfica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Casa Pia vs Benfica (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
