Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultEstoril to win ✗39% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.90
Arouca vs Estoril preview and prediction
The match
Estoril travel to Estádio Municipal de Arouca in the Primeira Liga on Monday 6 April (18:45 WAT) to face Arouca. Arouca are 5th with 20 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Estoril sit 18th on 2 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Arouca's last 3: LLW Most recently they lost to Famalicao 0–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Estoril's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Rio Ave 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.5 for Arouca and 1.5 for Estoril. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arouca 39%, draw 23%, Estoril 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Arouca 1–1 Estoril. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arouca39%fair 2.59 · @2.50
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.50
Estoril39%fair 2.58 · @2.60
3.07Expected goals
1.53Arouca xG
1.53Estoril xG
63%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–28%
2–18%
0–17%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Arouca 1.5 – 1.5 Estoril expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Estoril to win✗
39%
2.58
2.60
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.55
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Estoril / FT Estoril✗
22%
4.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.90
–
Form
Arouca – last 3
LLW
6 Mar
@ Famalicao
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ FC Porto
1–3
L
21 Feb
vs Nacional
3–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Estoril – last 5
LWLWL
22 Mar
vs Rio Ave
1–2
L
15 Mar
@ Nacional
1–0
W
27 Feb
@ Sporting CP
0–3
L
22 Feb
vs GIL Vicente
3–1
W
15 Feb
@ AVS
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arouca and Estoril.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Arouca vs Estoril?
On our numbers Arouca have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Estoril 39%.
How many goals will there be in Arouca vs Estoril?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arouca vs Estoril?
Our predicted score is Arouca 1–1 Estoril, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Arouca vs Estoril?
Arouca vs Estoril (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
