Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Estoril to win @ 1.75 – our chance 64% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultEstoril to win ✗64% · @1.75
Double chanceEstoril or draw ✗85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.35
Estoril vs Rio Ave preview and prediction
The match
The Primeira Liga sees Estoril take on Rio Ave on Sunday 22 March, kicking off at 16:30 (WAT) at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. Estoril are 18th with 2 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Rio Ave sit 17th on 7 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Estoril's last 4: WLWL Most recently they beat Nacional 1–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Rio Ave's last 4: WWLL Most recently they beat Estrela 2–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for Estoril and 0.9 for Rio Ave. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 62%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Estoril 64%, draw 21%, Rio Ave 15%.
Safer route: Estoril or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Estoril to win at 1.75 – 64% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Estoril or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Estoril 2–0 Rio Ave. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Estoril64%fair 1.57 · @1.75
Draw21%fair 4.65 · @3.90
Rio Ave15%fair 6.73 · @4.10
3.03Expected goals
2.10Estoril xG
0.93Rio Ave xG
62%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Estoril 2.1 – 0.9 Rio Ave expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Estoril to win✗
64%
1.57
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Estoril or draw✗
85%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.48
Half-time result
Estoril ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Estoril / FT Estoril✗
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.35
–
Form
Estoril – last 4
WLWL
15 Mar
@ Nacional
1–0
W
27 Feb
@ Sporting CP
0–3
L
22 Feb
vs GIL Vicente
3–1
W
15 Feb
@ AVS
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Rio Ave – last 4
WWLL
15 Mar
vs Estrela
2–1
W
9 Mar
@ Tondela
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ FC Porto
0–1
L
16 Feb
vs Moreirense
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estoril and Rio Ave.
Our pick is Estoril or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Estoril vs Rio Ave?
On our numbers Estoril have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Rio Ave 15%.
How many goals will there be in Estoril vs Rio Ave?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estoril vs Rio Ave?
Our predicted score is Estoril 2–0 Rio Ave, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Estoril vs Rio Ave?
Estoril vs Rio Ave (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
