Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 55% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultSporting CP to win70% · @1.28
Double chanceSporting CP or draw89% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–213% · fair 7.86
Alverca vs Sporting CP preview and prediction
The match
The Primeira Liga sees Alverca take on Sporting CP on Sunday 22 March, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at FC Alverca Sports Complex. Alverca are 11th with 12 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Sporting CP sit 3rd on 24 points (in the top four). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sporting CP's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat BodoGlimt 3–0 at home. They average 1.6 scored and 0.6 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 0.7 for Alverca and 2.2 for Sporting CP. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 55% of our simulations.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 55% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Alverca 0–2 Sporting CP. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alverca11%fair 8.96 · @11.50
Draw19%fair 5.32 · @5.10
Sporting CP70%fair 1.43 · @1.28
2.93Expected goals
0.75Alverca xG
2.18Sporting CP xG
55%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–213%
0–112%
1–210%
0–39%
1–19%
1–37%
From our goals model: Alverca 0.7 – 2.2 Sporting CP expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sporting CP to win
70%
1.43
1.28
Double chance
Sporting CP or draw
89%
1.13
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
55%
1.81
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
65%
1.55
1.50
Half-time result
Sporting CP ahead at half-time
51%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sporting CP / FT Sporting CP
46%
2.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2
13%
7.86
–
Form
Alverca – last 2
DD
21 Feb
vs Santa Clara
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Tondela
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Sporting CP – last 5
WLWWW
17 Mar
vs BodoGlimt
3–0
W
11 Mar
@ BodoGlimt
0–3
L
3 Mar
vs FC Porto
1–0
W
27 Feb
vs Estoril
3–0
W
15 Feb
vs Famalicao
1–0
W
1.6Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
0%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alverca and Sporting CP.
What is the prediction for Alverca vs Sporting CP?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Alverca vs Sporting CP?
On our numbers Alverca have a 11% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Sporting CP 70%.
How many goals will there be in Alverca vs Sporting CP?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alverca vs Sporting CP?
Our predicted score is Alverca 0–2 Sporting CP, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Alverca vs Sporting CP?
Alverca vs Sporting CP (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
