Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
1
Value bet: Tondela to win @ 3.35 – our chance 36% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSanta Clara to win ✗37% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.95
Tondela vs Santa Clara preview and prediction
The match
Santa Clara travel to Estádio João Cardoso in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 1 March (16:30 WAT) to face Tondela.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Tondela and 1.1 for Santa Clara. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tondela 36%, draw 27%, Santa Clara 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Tondela to win at 3.35 – 36% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 63% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Tondela 1–1 Santa Clara. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tondela36%fair 2.81 · @3.35
Draw27%fair 3.72 · @2.85
Santa Clara37%fair 2.67 · @2.38
2.17Expected goals
1.07Tondela xG
1.10Santa Clara xG
55%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–012%
0–011%
1–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Tondela 1.1 – 1.1 Santa Clara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santa Clara to win✗
37%
2.67
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.37
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santa Clara / FT Santa Clara✗
20%
4.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.95
–
Form
Tondela – last 2
WD
20 Feb
@ Estrela
2–0
W
13 Feb
vs Alverca
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Santa Clara – last 2
DL
21 Feb
@ Alverca
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs Benfica
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tondela and Santa Clara.
What is the prediction for Tondela vs Santa Clara?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Tondela vs Santa Clara?
On our numbers Tondela have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Santa Clara 37%.
How many goals will there be in Tondela vs Santa Clara?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tondela vs Santa Clara?
Our predicted score is Tondela 1–1 Santa Clara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Tondela vs Santa Clara?
Tondela vs Santa Clara (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio João Cardoso.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
