Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCasa Pia to win ✗37% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.76
Casa Pia vs Moreirense preview and prediction
The match
Moreirense travel to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 1 March (19:00 WAT) to face Casa Pia. Casa Pia are 16th with 8 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Moreirense sit 9th on 14 points (in the top half).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Casa Pia and 1.2 for Moreirense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Casa Pia 37%, draw 26%, Moreirense 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 54% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Casa Pia 1–1 Moreirense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Casa Pia37%fair 2.68 · @2.75
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @2.90
Moreirense37%fair 2.73 · @2.75
2.51Expected goals
1.26Casa Pia xG
1.25Moreirense xG
54%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
0–08%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Casa Pia 1.3 – 1.2 Moreirense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Casa Pia to win✗
37%
2.68
2.75
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Casa Pia / FT Casa Pia✗
21%
4.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.76
–
Form
Casa Pia – last 1
L
23 Feb
@ Famalicao
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Moreirense – last 1
W
16 Feb
@ Rio Ave
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Casa Pia and Moreirense.
What is the prediction for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
On our numbers Casa Pia have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Moreirense 37%.
How many goals will there be in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Our predicted score is Casa Pia 1–1 Moreirense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Casa Pia vs Moreirense (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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