FC Porto travel to Estádio da Madeira in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 15 February (16:30 WAT) to face Nacional. Nacional are 13th with 10 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while FC Porto sit 1st on 33 points (top of the table). A gap of 23 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 0.7 for Nacional and 2.0 for FC Porto. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nacional 12%, draw 19%, FC Porto 69%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.95.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Nacional 0–2 FC Porto. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nacional12%fair 8.08 · @8.25
Draw19%fair 5.37 · @4.40
FC Porto69%fair 1.45 · @1.39
2.66Expected goals
0.67Nacional xG
1.99FC Porto xG
53%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–214%
1–19%
1–29%
0–39%
0–07%
From our goals model: Nacional 0.7 – 2.0 FC Porto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Porto to win✓
69%
1.45
1.39
Double chance
FC Porto or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.40
Half-time result
FC Porto ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Porto / FT FC Porto✗
44%
2.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
14%
7.20
–
Form
Nacional
No recent results on record.
FC Porto
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nacional and FC Porto.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Nacional vs FC Porto?
On our numbers Nacional have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 19% and FC Porto 69%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional vs FC Porto?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacional vs FC Porto?
Our predicted score is Nacional 0–2 FC Porto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Nacional vs FC Porto?
Nacional vs FC Porto (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Madeira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
AVS3