Value bet: Carmarthen Town to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNewport City to win ✗40% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.08
Newport City vs Carmarthen Town preview and prediction
The match
Carmarthen Town travel to Newport Stadium in the FAW Championship on Sunday 1 March (15:00 WAT) to face Newport City. Newport City are 13th with 13 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Carmarthen Town sit 10th on 15 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Newport City and 1.1 for Carmarthen Town. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Newport City 40%, draw 24%, Carmarthen Town 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Carmarthen Town to win at 3.10 – 36% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 1.67. Predicted score: Newport City 1–1 Carmarthen Town. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Newport City40%fair 2.49 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.10
Carmarthen Town36%fair 2.79 · @3.10
2.24Expected goals
1.16Newport City xG
1.08Carmarthen Town xG
54%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–011%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Newport City 1.2 – 1.1 Carmarthen Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newport City to win✗
40%
2.49
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.53
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
81%
1.23
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newport City / FT Newport City✗
21%
4.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.08
–
Form
Newport City – last 2
WW
20 Feb
vs Llantwit Major
2–1
W
13 Feb
@ Afan Lido
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Carmarthen Town – last 2
WL
21 Feb
@ Caerau (Ely)
4–3
W
13 Feb
vs Trefelin
0–2
L
2.0Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newport City and Carmarthen Town.
What is the prediction for Newport City vs Carmarthen Town?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Newport City vs Carmarthen Town?
On our numbers Newport City have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Carmarthen Town 36%.
How many goals will there be in Newport City vs Carmarthen Town?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newport City vs Carmarthen Town?
Our predicted score is Newport City 1–1 Carmarthen Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Newport City vs Carmarthen Town?
Newport City vs Carmarthen Town (FAW Championship) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Newport Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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