Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town prediction & analysis
87%
Footrivo pick
Caerau (Ely) or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Caerau (Ely) to win @ 1.80 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCaerau (Ely) to win ✗64% · @1.80
Double chanceCaerau (Ely) or draw ✗87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.78
Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town preview and prediction
The match
Caerau (Ely) host Carmarthen Town in the FAW Championship on Saturday 21 February, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Cwrt-yr-Ala. Caerau (Ely) are 4th with 22 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Carmarthen Town sit 10th on 15 points (in the bottom half).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Caerau (Ely) and 0.7 for Carmarthen Town. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Caerau (Ely) 64%, draw 23%, Carmarthen Town 13%.
Safer route: Caerau (Ely) or draw (87%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Caerau (Ely) to win at 1.80 – 64% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Caerau (Ely) or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Caerau (Ely) 1–0 Carmarthen Town. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Caerau (Ely)64%fair 1.55 · @1.80
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.30
Carmarthen Town13%fair 7.69 · @3.60
2.52Expected goals
1.83Caerau (Ely) xG
0.69Carmarthen Town xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Caerau (Ely) 1.8 – 0.7 Carmarthen Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caerau (Ely) to win✗
64%
1.55
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Caerau (Ely) or draw✗
87%
1.15
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
–
Half-time result
Caerau (Ely) ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caerau (Ely) / FT Caerau (Ely)✗
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.78
–
Form
Caerau (Ely) – last 1
L
13 Feb
@ Cambrian & Clydach
0–3
L
0.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Carmarthen Town – last 1
L
13 Feb
vs Trefelin
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caerau (Ely) and Carmarthen Town.
What is the prediction for Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town?
Our pick is Caerau (Ely) or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town?
On our numbers Caerau (Ely) have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Carmarthen Town 13%.
How many goals will there be in Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town?
Our predicted score is Caerau (Ely) 1–0 Carmarthen Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town?
Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town (FAW Championship) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Cwrt-yr-Ala.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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