Value bet: AS Jeunesse Esch to win @ 3.30 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultProgres Niederkorn to win ✗45% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.22
AS Jeunesse Esch vs Progres Niederkorn preview and prediction
The match
Progres Niederkorn travel to Stade de la Frontiere in the National Division on Sunday 17 May (17:30 WAT) to face AS Jeunesse Esch. AS Jeunesse Esch are 10th with 13 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Progres Niederkorn sit 6th on 22 points (in the top half).
Form guide
AS Jeunesse Esch's last 4: LDLL Most recently they lost to US Hostert 2–3 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Progres Niederkorn's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to FC Differdange 03 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Progres Niederkorn arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for AS Jeunesse Esch and 1.4 for Progres Niederkorn. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: AS Jeunesse Esch to win at 3.30 – 33% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: AS Jeunesse Esch 1–1 Progres Niederkorn. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AS Jeunesse Esch33%fair 3.04 · @3.30
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @3.30
Progres Niederkorn45%fair 2.20 · @2.05
2.57Expected goals
1.15AS Jeunesse Esch xG
1.42Progres Niederkorn xG
58%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: AS Jeunesse Esch 1.2 – 1.4 Progres Niederkorn expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Progres Niederkorn to win✗
45%
2.20
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Progres Niederkorn / FT Progres Niederkorn✗
25%
3.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.22
–
Form
AS Jeunesse Esch – last 4
LDLL
22 Mar
vs US Hostert
2–3
L
15 Mar
@ FC Differdange 03
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Jeunesse Canach
0–1
L
15 Feb
@ Mamer
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Progres Niederkorn – last 6
LWDWLW
8 May
vs FC Differdange 03
2–3
L
22 Apr
@ Atert Bissen
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs UN Kaerjeng 97
2–2
D
15 Mar
@ US Hostert
5–1
W
8 Mar
@ UNA Strassen
0–2
L
4 Mar
@ Wiltz
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AS Jeunesse Esch and Progres Niederkorn.
What is the prediction for AS Jeunesse Esch vs Progres Niederkorn?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win AS Jeunesse Esch vs Progres Niederkorn?
On our numbers AS Jeunesse Esch have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Progres Niederkorn 45%.
How many goals will there be in AS Jeunesse Esch vs Progres Niederkorn?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AS Jeunesse Esch vs Progres Niederkorn?
Our predicted score is AS Jeunesse Esch 1–1 Progres Niederkorn, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is AS Jeunesse Esch vs Progres Niederkorn?
AS Jeunesse Esch vs Progres Niederkorn (National Division) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Stade de la Frontiere.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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