Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.69 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.69Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlmeria to win ✓67% · @1.69
Double chanceAlmeria or draw ✓86% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗13% · fair 7.98
Almeria vs Leganes preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División sees Almeria take on Leganes on Sunday 5 April, kicking off at 17:30 (WAT) at UD Almería Stadium. Almeria are 1st with 29 points from 13 games (top of the table), while Leganes sit 18th on 12 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Almeria's last 5: LWWWD Most recently they lost to Castellón 0–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Leganes's last 4: DLDD Most recently they drew with Zaragoza 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Almeria arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Almeria and 0.8 for Leganes. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Almeria 67%, draw 19%, Leganes 14%.
Safer route: Almeria or draw (86%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.73.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Almeria to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.69, above our fair price of 1.49, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Almeria 2–0 Leganes. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Almeria67%fair 1.49 · @1.69
Draw19%fair 5.29 · @3.70
Leganes14%fair 7.06 · @4.85
2.77Expected goals
2.00Almeria xG
0.77Leganes xG
54%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–013%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–16%
From our goals model: Almeria 2.0 – 0.8 Leganes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Almeria to win✓
67%
1.49
1.69 ▲
Double chance
Almeria or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.38
Half-time result
Almeria ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Almeria / FT Almeria✗
43%
2.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
13%
7.98
–
Form
Almeria – last 6
LWWWDW
2 Apr
@ Castellón
0–2
L
29 Mar
vs Real Sociedad II
5–1
W
20 Mar
@ Huesca
3–1
W
9 Mar
vs Cultural Leonesa
3–0
W
27 Feb
@ Albacete
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs FC Andorra
3–2
W
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Leganes – last 4
DLDD
2 Apr
vs Zaragoza
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Eibar
0–1
L
2 Mar
@ Sporting Gijon
0–0
D
21 Feb
vs Cultural Leonesa
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Almeria and Leganes.
Our pick is Almeria to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.69.
Who will win Almeria vs Leganes?
On our numbers Almeria have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Leganes 14%.
How many goals will there be in Almeria vs Leganes?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Almeria vs Leganes?
Our predicted score is Almeria 2–0 Leganes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Almeria vs Leganes?
Almeria vs Leganes (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at UD Almería Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Huesca1
Zaragoza1
Mirandes2