Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.84 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.84Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultBurgos to win ✗65% · @1.84
Double chanceBurgos or draw ✓86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 6.04
Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC preview and prediction
The match
Burgos host AD Ceuta FC in the Segunda División on Wednesday 1 April, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío. Burgos are 3rd with 24 points from 13 games (in the top four), while AD Ceuta FC sit 22nd on 5 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Burgos's last 3: WDL Most recently they beat Cordoba 4–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
AD Ceuta FC's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Cadiz 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
AD Ceuta FC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for Burgos and 0.6 for AD Ceuta FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Burgos 65%, draw 22%, AD Ceuta FC 14%.
Safer route: Burgos or draw (86%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.05.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Burgos to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.84, above our fair price of 1.55, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Burgos 1–0 AD Ceuta FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Burgos65%fair 1.55 · @1.84
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.20
AD Ceuta FC14%fair 7.26 · @4.70
2.34Expected goals
1.72Burgos xG
0.62AD Ceuta FC xG
51%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–110%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Burgos 1.7 – 0.6 AD Ceuta FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Burgos to win✗
65%
1.55
1.84 ▲
Double chance
Burgos or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
2.05
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
1.18
Half-time result
Burgos ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Burgos / FT Burgos✗
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
6.04
–
Form
Burgos – last 3
WDL
22 Mar
vs Cordoba
4–0
W
15 Mar
@ Eibar
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Racing Santander
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
AD Ceuta FC – last 6
WLWWWL
28 Mar
vs Cadiz
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Las Palmas
0–4
L
1 Mar
@ Mirandes
1–0
W
25 Feb
vs Cordoba
3–2
W
20 Feb
vs Granada CF
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Huesca
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Burgos and AD Ceuta FC.
Our pick is Burgos to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.84.
Who will win Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?
On our numbers Burgos have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and AD Ceuta FC 14%.
How many goals will there be in Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?
Our predicted score is Burgos 1–0 AD Ceuta FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?
Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC (Segunda División) kicks off on Wednesday 1 April 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Huesca1
Cultural Leonesa1
Racing Santander3