Value bet: Las Palmas to win @ 1.69 – our chance 67% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLas Palmas to win ✓67% · @1.69
Double chanceLas Palmas or draw ✓86% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.21
Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC preview and prediction
The match
AD Ceuta FC travel to Estadio de Gran Canaria in the Segunda División on Sunday 8 March (14:00 WAT) to face Las Palmas. Las Palmas are 10th with 20 points from 13 games (in the top half), while AD Ceuta FC sit 22nd on 5 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
AD Ceuta FC's last 4: WWWL Most recently they beat Mirandes 1–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.8 for Las Palmas and 0.6 for AD Ceuta FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Las Palmas 67%, draw 19%, AD Ceuta FC 14%.
Safer route: Las Palmas or draw (86%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Las Palmas to win at 1.69 – 67% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Las Palmas 1–0 AD Ceuta FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Las Palmas67%fair 1.49 · @1.69
Draw19%fair 5.22 · @3.60
AD Ceuta FC14%fair 7.18 · @5.00
2.40Expected goals
1.78Las Palmas xG
0.62AD Ceuta FC xG
50%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
0–09%
2–19%
3–09%
From our goals model: Las Palmas 1.8 – 0.6 AD Ceuta FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Las Palmas to win✓
67%
1.49
1.69 ▲
Double chance
Las Palmas or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.25
Half-time result
Las Palmas ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Las Palmas / FT Las Palmas✓
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.21
–
Form
Las Palmas – last 2
WD
1 Mar
@ Cultural Leonesa
3–0
W
15 Feb
@ Mirandes
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
AD Ceuta FC – last 4
WWWL
1 Mar
@ Mirandes
1–0
W
25 Feb
vs Cordoba
3–2
W
20 Feb
vs Granada CF
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Huesca
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Las Palmas and AD Ceuta FC.
What is the prediction for Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC?
On our numbers Las Palmas have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and AD Ceuta FC 14%.
How many goals will there be in Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC?
Our predicted score is Las Palmas 1–0 AD Ceuta FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC?
Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Racing Santander4
Deportivo La Coruna0