Value bet: Oviedo to win @ 3.50 – our chance 31% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVillarreal to win ✗47% · @2.08
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.45
Oviedo vs Villarreal preview and prediction
The match
The La Liga sees Oviedo take on Villarreal on Thursday 23 April, kicking off at 20:30 (WAT) at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere.
Form guide
Oviedo's last 5: WDLDL Most recently they beat Sevilla 1–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Villarreal's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Girona 0–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Villarreal arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for Oviedo and 1.5 for Villarreal. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 60%.
Value angle: Oviedo to win at 3.50 – 31% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Oviedo 1–1 Villarreal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Oviedo31%fair 3.20 · @3.50
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.30
Villarreal47%fair 2.13 · @2.08
2.65Expected goals
1.15Oviedo xG
1.49Villarreal xG
60%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Oviedo 1.2 – 1.5 Villarreal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Villarreal to win✗
47%
2.13
2.08
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Villarreal / FT Villarreal✗
27%
3.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.45
–
Form
Oviedo – last 5
WDLDL
5 Apr
vs Sevilla
1–0
W
9 Mar
@ Espanyol
1–1
D
4 Mar
@ Rayo Vallecano
0–3
L
21 Feb
@ Real Sociedad
3–3
D
15 Feb
vs Athletic Club
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Villarreal – last 6
LWDWWW
6 Apr
@ Girona
0–1
L
20 Mar
vs Real Sociedad
3–1
W
13 Mar
@ Alaves
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Elche
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Valencia
2–1
W
18 Feb
@ Levante
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Oviedo and Villarreal.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Oviedo vs Villarreal?
On our numbers Oviedo have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Villarreal 47%.
How many goals will there be in Oviedo vs Villarreal?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Oviedo vs Villarreal?
Our predicted score is Oviedo 1–1 Villarreal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Oviedo vs Villarreal?
Oviedo vs Villarreal (La Liga) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
