Value bet: Espanyol to win @ 3.60 – our chance 34% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRayo Vallecano to win ✓44% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓11% · fair 8.79
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol preview and prediction
The match
Espanyol travel to Campo de Futbol de Vallecas in the La Liga on Thursday 23 April (19:00 WAT) to face Rayo Vallecano. Rayo Vallecano are 14th with 12 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Espanyol sit 13th on 12 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Rayo Vallecano's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to AEK Athens FC 1–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Espanyol's last 3: LDD Most recently they lost to Mallorca 1–2 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Rayo Vallecano arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.1 for Espanyol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: Espanyol to win at 3.60 – 34% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Espanyol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Rayo Vallecano44%fair 2.30 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.15
Espanyol34%fair 2.94 · @3.60
2.46Expected goals
1.33Rayo Vallecano xG
1.13Espanyol xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Rayo Vallecano 1.3 – 1.1 Espanyol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rayo Vallecano to win✓
44%
2.30
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rayo Vallecano / FT Rayo Vallecano✗
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
11%
8.79
–
Form
Rayo Vallecano – last 6
LWWLLD
16 Apr
@ AEK Athens FC
1–3
L
9 Apr
vs AEK Athens FC
3–0
W
3 Apr
vs Elche
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ Barcelona
0–1
L
19 Mar
vs Samsunspor
0–1
L
16 Mar
vs Levante
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Espanyol – last 3
LDD
15 Mar
@ Mallorca
1–2
L
9 Mar
vs Oviedo
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Elche
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rayo Vallecano and Espanyol.
What is the prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
On our numbers Rayo Vallecano have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Espanyol 34%.
How many goals will there be in Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
Our predicted score is Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Espanyol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol (La Liga) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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