Value bet: Celta Vigo to win @ 3.75 – our chance 31% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultVillarreal to win48% · @1.96
Double chanceEither team to win79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–010% · fair 10.08
Villarreal vs Celta Vigo preview and prediction
The match
Villarreal host Celta Vigo in the La Liga on Sunday 26 April, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estadio de la Ceramica. Villarreal are 8th with 15 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Celta Vigo sit 11th on 13 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Villarreal's last 5: DLWDW Most recently they drew with Oviedo 1–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Celta Vigo's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Barcelona 0–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Villarreal arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.6 for Villarreal and 1.2 for Celta Vigo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Villarreal 48%, draw 21%, Celta Vigo 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Celta Vigo to win at 3.75 – 31% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Villarreal 1–1 Celta Vigo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Villarreal48%fair 2.06 · @1.96
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.40
Celta Vigo31%fair 3.27 · @3.75
2.77Expected goals
1.58Villarreal xG
1.19Celta Vigo xG
57%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
2–08%
0–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Villarreal 1.6 – 1.2 Celta Vigo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Villarreal to win
48%
2.06
1.96
Double chance
Either team to win
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.74
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
75%
1.33
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
52%
1.92
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
69%
1.45
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Villarreal / FT Villarreal
28%
3.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
10%
10.08
–
Form
Villarreal – last 6
DLWDWW
23 Apr
@ Oviedo
1–1
D
6 Apr
@ Girona
0–1
L
20 Mar
vs Real Sociedad
3–1
W
13 Mar
@ Alaves
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Elche
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Valencia
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Celta Vigo – last 6
LLLWLW
22 Apr
@ Barcelona
0–1
L
16 Apr
vs SC Freiburg
1–3
L
9 Apr
@ SC Freiburg
0–3
L
5 Apr
@ Valencia
3–2
W
22 Mar
vs Alaves
3–4
L
19 Mar
@ Lyon
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Villarreal and Celta Vigo.
What is the prediction for Villarreal vs Celta Vigo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Villarreal vs Celta Vigo?
On our numbers Villarreal have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Celta Vigo 31%.
How many goals will there be in Villarreal vs Celta Vigo?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Villarreal vs Celta Vigo?
Our predicted score is Villarreal 1–1 Celta Vigo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Villarreal vs Celta Vigo?
Villarreal vs Celta Vigo (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de la Ceramica.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Oviedo0