Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prediction & analysis
64%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.50
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
1
Value bet: Real Madrid to win @ 1.87 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultReal Madrid to win57% · @1.87
Double chanceEither team to win81% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score63% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–010% · fair 10.06
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid preview and prediction
The match
The La Liga sees Real Madrid take on Atletico Madrid on Sunday 22 March, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu. Real Madrid are 2nd with 30 points from 12 games (in the top four), while Atletico Madrid sit 3rd on 28 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Real Madrid's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Manchester City 2–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Atletico Madrid's last 5: LWLWD Most recently they lost to Tottenham 2–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Real Madrid arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.9 for Real Madrid and 1.1 for Atletico Madrid. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Real Madrid 57%, draw 19%, Atletico Madrid 24%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Real Madrid to win at 1.87 – 57% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Real Madrid 1–1 Atletico Madrid. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Real Madrid57%fair 1.74 · @1.87
Draw19%fair 5.29 · @3.95
Atletico Madrid24%fair 4.23 · @3.55
2.92Expected goals
1.85Real Madrid xG
1.07Atletico Madrid xG
63%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
3–16%
0–16%
From our goals model: Real Madrid 1.9 – 1.1 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Madrid to win
57%
1.74
1.87 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
81%
1.23
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
63%
1.58
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
80%
1.26
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
57%
1.74
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
64%
1.55
1.50
Half-time result
Real Madrid ahead at half-time
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Madrid / FT Real Madrid
35%
2.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
10%
10.06
–
Form
Real Madrid – last 6
WWWLWW
17 Mar
@ Manchester City
2–1
W
11 Mar
vs Manchester City
3–0
W
6 Mar
@ Celta Vigo
2–1
W
2 Mar
vs Getafe
0–1
L
25 Feb
vs Benfica
2–1
W
17 Feb
@ Benfica
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid – last 6
LWLWDL
18 Mar
@ Tottenham
2–3
L
10 Mar
vs Tottenham
5–2
W
3 Mar
@ Barcelona
0–3
L
24 Feb
vs Club Brugge KV
4–1
W
18 Feb
@ Club Brugge KV
3–3
D
15 Feb
@ Rayo Vallecano
0–3
L
2.3Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid.
What is the prediction for Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid?
On our numbers Real Madrid have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Atletico Madrid 24%.
How many goals will there be in Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid?
Our predicted score is Real Madrid 1–1 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid?
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
