Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Celta Vigo to win @ 1.90 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCelta Vigo to win ✗57% · @1.90
Double chanceCelta Vigo or draw ✗81% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.71
Celta Vigo vs Alaves preview and prediction
The match
Alaves travel to Estadio Abanca-Balaídos in the La Liga on Sunday 22 March (16:15 WAT) to face Celta Vigo. Celta Vigo are 11th with 13 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Alaves sit 12th on 13 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Celta Vigo's last 5: WDDLW Most recently they beat Lyon 2–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Alaves's last 3: DLD Most recently they drew with Villarreal 1–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Celta Vigo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.6 for Celta Vigo and 0.8 for Alaves. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 52%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Celta Vigo 57%, draw 24%, Alaves 19%.
Safer route: Celta Vigo or draw (81%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Celta Vigo to win at 1.90 – 57% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Celta Vigo or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Celta Vigo 1–0 Alaves. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Celta Vigo57%fair 1.75 · @1.90
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.15
Alaves19%fair 5.38 · @4.40
2.37Expected goals
1.59Celta Vigo xG
0.78Alaves xG
52%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–012%
1–112%
0–09%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Celta Vigo 1.6 – 0.8 Alaves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Celta Vigo to win✗
57%
1.75
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Celta Vigo or draw✗
81%
1.23
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Celta Vigo / FT Celta Vigo✗
35%
2.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.71
–
Form
Celta Vigo – last 6
WDDLWW
19 Mar
@ Lyon
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Real Betis
1–1
D
12 Mar
vs Lyon
1–1
D
6 Mar
vs Real Madrid
1–2
L
26 Feb
vs PAOK
1–0
W
22 Feb
vs Mallorca
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Alaves – last 3
DLD
13 Mar
vs Villarreal
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Levante
0–2
L
23 Feb
vs Girona
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Celta Vigo and Alaves.
Our pick is Celta Vigo or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
On our numbers Celta Vigo have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alaves 19%.
How many goals will there be in Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Our predicted score is Celta Vigo 1–0 Alaves, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Celta Vigo vs Alaves (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 16:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
