Montpellier vs Estac Troyes preview and prediction
The match
The Ligue 2 sees Montpellier take on Estac Troyes on Saturday 4 April, kicking off at 13:00 (WAT) at Stade de la Mosson.
Form guide
Montpellier's last 5: DWWDL Most recently they drew with PAU 0–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.2 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Estac Troyes's last 4: WWWD Most recently they beat Annecy 2–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Estac Troyes arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.6.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Montpellier and 1.3 for Estac Troyes. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 59%.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Montpellier 1–1 Estac Troyes. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Montpellier37%fair 2.72 · @2.75
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.25
Estac Troyes39%fair 2.55 · @2.50
2.53Expected goals
1.24Montpellier xG
1.29Estac Troyes xG
59%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Montpellier 1.2 – 1.3 Estac Troyes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Estac Troyes to win✗
39%
2.55
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Estac Troyes / FT Estac Troyes✗
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.71
–
Form
Montpellier – last 5
DWWDL
20 Mar
@ PAU
0–0
D
13 Mar
vs Laval
2–0
W
6 Mar
@ Nancy
3–0
W
27 Feb
vs Reims
0–0
D
20 Feb
@ Rodez
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Estac Troyes – last 4
WWWD
16 Mar
@ Annecy
2–1
W
2 Mar
@ Amiens
2–0
W
21 Feb
vs PAU
4–3
W
16 Feb
@ Bastia
0–0
D
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Montpellier and Estac Troyes.
What is the prediction for Montpellier vs Estac Troyes?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Montpellier vs Estac Troyes?
On our numbers Montpellier have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Estac Troyes 39%.
How many goals will there be in Montpellier vs Estac Troyes?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Montpellier vs Estac Troyes?
Our predicted score is Montpellier 1–1 Estac Troyes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Montpellier vs Estac Troyes?
Montpellier vs Estac Troyes (Ligue 2) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade de la Mosson.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
