Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.42 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.42Odds
2
Value bet: Bastia to win @ 3.90 – our chance 31% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDunkerque to win ✗46% · @1.98
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.42
Dunkerque vs Bastia preview and prediction
The match
Dunkerque host Bastia in the Ligue 2 on Friday 20 February, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Stade Marcel Tribut.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.3 for Dunkerque and 1.0 for Bastia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Dunkerque 46%, draw 22%, Bastia 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Bastia to win at 3.90 – 31% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: Dunkerque 1–1 Bastia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Dunkerque46%fair 2.16 · @1.98
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.20
Bastia31%fair 3.19 · @3.90
2.25Expected goals
1.27Dunkerque xG
0.97Bastia xG
55%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–113%
0–011%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Dunkerque 1.3 – 1.0 Bastia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Dunkerque to win✗
46%
2.16
1.98
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.19
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Dunkerque / FT Dunkerque✗
25%
4.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.42
–
Form
Dunkerque – last 1
W
13 Feb
@ Amiens
4–1
W
4.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Bastia – last 1
D
16 Feb
vs Estac Troyes
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Dunkerque and Bastia.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Dunkerque vs Bastia?
On our numbers Dunkerque have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bastia 31%.
How many goals will there be in Dunkerque vs Bastia?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Our predicted score is Dunkerque 1–1 Bastia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Dunkerque vs Bastia (Ligue 2) kicks off on Friday 20 February 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Marcel Tribut.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
