SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: 1. FC Nürnberg to win @ 2.50 – our chance 44% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Result1. FC Nürnberg to win ✗44% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.27
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg preview and prediction
The match
1. FC Nürnberg travel to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in the 2. Bundesliga on Sunday 3 May (12:30 WAT) to face SpVgg Greuther Fürth. SpVgg Greuther Fürth are 10th with 12 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while 1. FC Nürnberg sit 2nd on 24 points (in the top four). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 5: LWLLW Most recently they lost to VfL Bochum 1–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
1. FC Nürnberg's last 5: WDLLD Most recently they beat 1. FC Magdeburg 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.4 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.6 for 1. FC Nürnberg. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations.
Value angle: 1. FC Nürnberg to win at 2.50 – 44% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
SpVgg Greuther Fürth36%fair 2.79 · @2.50
Draw20%fair 4.94 · @3.65
1. FC Nürnberg44%fair 2.28 · @2.50
3.06Expected goals
1.44SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.621. FC Nürnberg xG
65%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.4 – 1.6 1. FC Nürnberg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
1. FC Nürnberg to win✗
44%
2.28
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.53
1.48
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.50
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.55
–
Half-time / full-time
HT 1. FC Nürnberg / FT 1. FC Nürnberg✗
25%
3.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.27
–
Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – last 6
LWLLWW
26 Apr
@ VfL Bochum
1–2
L
19 Apr
vs SV Darmstadt 98
3–2
W
5 Apr
vs SC Paderborn 07
0–2
L
20 Mar
@ Karlsruher SC
1–3
L
13 Mar
vs SV Elversberg
2–0
W
8 Mar
@ Hannover 96
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
1. FC Nürnberg – last 6
WDLLDW
26 Apr
vs 1. FC Magdeburg
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Eintracht Braunschweig
1–1
D
7 Mar
vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
0–1
L
1 Mar
@ Hertha BSC
1–2
L
20 Feb
@ VfL Bochum
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs Karlsruher SC
5–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg.
What is the prediction for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
On our numbers SpVgg Greuther Fürth have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 20% and 1. FC Nürnberg 44%.
How many goals will there be in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our predicted score is SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg (2. Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
SV Elversberg5
SC Paderborn 071
Preußen Münster3