FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg preview and prediction
The match
SC Freiburg travel to Millerntor-Stadion in the Bundesliga on Sunday 22 March (17:30 WAT) to face FC St. Pauli.
Form guide
FC St. Pauli's last 3: LDW Most recently they lost to Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
SC Freiburg's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Genk 5–1 at home. They average 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for FC St. Pauli and 1.3 for SC Freiburg. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC St. Pauli 36%, draw 26%, SC Freiburg 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.90.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: FC St. Pauli 1–1 SC Freiburg. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC St. Pauli36%fair 2.81 · @2.72
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @2.98
SC Freiburg39%fair 2.58 · @2.72
2.57Expected goals
1.25FC St. Pauli xG
1.32SC Freiburg xG
51%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: FC St. Pauli 1.3 – 1.3 SC Freiburg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
SC Freiburg to win✓
39%
2.58
2.72 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT SC Freiburg / FT SC Freiburg✗
22%
4.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.93
–
Form
FC St. Pauli – last 3
LDW
13 Mar
@ Borussia Mönchengladbach
0–2
L
8 Mar
vs Eintracht Frankfurt
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs Werder Bremen
2–1
W
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
SC Freiburg – last 5
WLLLW
19 Mar
vs Genk
5–1
W
15 Mar
vs Union Berlin
0–1
L
12 Mar
@ Genk
0–1
L
1 Mar
@ Eintracht Frankfurt
0–2
L
22 Feb
vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
2–1
W
1.4Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC St. Pauli and SC Freiburg.
What is the prediction for FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg?
On our numbers FC St. Pauli have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 26% and SC Freiburg 39%.
How many goals will there be in FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg?
Our predicted score is FC St. Pauli 1–1 SC Freiburg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg?
FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg (Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Millerntor-Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
