Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Monaco to win @ 1.92 – our chance 60% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMonaco to win ✗60% · @1.92
Double chanceMonaco or draw ✗82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.69
Paris FC vs Monaco preview and prediction
The match
Paris FC host Monaco in the Ligue 1 on Friday 10 April, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Stade Jean Bouin. Paris FC are 3rd with 20 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Monaco sit 7th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Paris FC's last 4: DWDW Most recently they drew with Lorient 1–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Monaco's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Marseille 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.0 for Paris FC and 2.0 for Monaco. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 56% and both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Paris FC 18%, draw 22%, Monaco 60%.
Safer route: Monaco or draw (82%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Monaco to win at 1.92 – 60% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Monaco or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Paris FC 0–1 Monaco. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Paris FC18%fair 5.48 · @3.70
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.55
Monaco60%fair 1.67 · @1.92
2.94Expected goals
0.98Paris FC xG
1.96Monaco xG
60%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–110%
1–110%
0–210%
1–210%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Paris FC 1.0 – 2.0 Monaco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monaco to win✗
60%
1.67
1.92 ▲
Double chance
Monaco or draw✗
82%
1.22
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.77
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.48
Half-time result
Monaco ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monaco / FT Monaco✗
38%
2.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.69
–
Form
Paris FC – last 4
DWDW
5 Apr
@ Lorient
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Le Havre
3–2
W
15 Mar
@ Strasbourg
0–0
D
1 Mar
vs Nice
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Monaco – last 6
WWWDWL
5 Apr
vs Marseille
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ Lyon
2–1
W
6 Mar
@ Paris Saint Germain
3–1
W
25 Feb
@ Paris Saint Germain
2–2
D
21 Feb
@ Lens
3–2
W
17 Feb
vs Paris Saint Germain
2–3
L
2.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paris FC and Monaco.
Our pick is Monaco or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Paris FC vs Monaco?
On our numbers Paris FC have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Monaco 60%.
How many goals will there be in Paris FC vs Monaco?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paris FC vs Monaco?
Our predicted score is Paris FC 0–1 Monaco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Paris FC vs Monaco?
Paris FC vs Monaco (Ligue 1) kicks off on Friday 10 April 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Jean Bouin.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Metz1