Value bet: Millwall to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMillwall to win ✓57% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓13% · fair 7.92
Millwall vs Derby preview and prediction
The match
Millwall host Derby in the Championship on Tuesday 10 March, with kick-off at 20:45 (WAT) at The Den. Millwall are 16th with 18 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Derby sit 23rd on 10 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Millwall's last 3: WWL Most recently they beat Hull City 3–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Derby's last 3: WLL Most recently they beat Blackburn 3–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Millwall arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.7 for Millwall and 0.9 for Derby. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 50%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Millwall 57%, draw 21%, Derby 22%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Millwall to win at 1.95 – 57% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Millwall 1–0 Derby. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Millwall57%fair 1.74 · @1.95
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @3.35
Derby22%fair 4.65 · @3.90
2.59Expected goals
1.69Millwall xG
0.91Derby xG
50%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Millwall 1.7 – 0.9 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Millwall to win✓
57%
1.74
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Millwall / FT Millwall✓
34%
2.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
13%
7.92
–
Form
Millwall – last 3
WWL
7 Mar
@ Hull City
3–1
W
25 Feb
vs Birmingham
3–0
W
21 Feb
vs Portsmouth
1–3
L
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Derby – last 3
WLL
28 Feb
vs Blackburn
3–1
W
24 Feb
@ Hull City
2–4
L
21 Feb
@ Watford
0–2
L
1.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Millwall and Derby.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Millwall vs Derby?
On our numbers Millwall have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Derby 22%.
How many goals will there be in Millwall vs Derby?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Millwall vs Derby?
Our predicted score is Millwall 1–0 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Millwall vs Derby?
Millwall vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 10 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at The Den.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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