Value bet: Birmingham to win @ 2.78 – our chance 38% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBirmingham to win ✗38% · @2.78
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.21
Millwall vs Birmingham preview and prediction
The match
The Championship sees Millwall take on Birmingham on Wednesday 25 February, kicking off at 20:45 (WAT) at The Den. Millwall are 16th with 18 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Birmingham sit 1st on 29 points (top of the table).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Millwall and 1.3 for Birmingham. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Birmingham to win at 2.78 – 38% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Millwall 1–1 Birmingham. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Millwall37%fair 2.68 · @2.50
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.20
Birmingham38%fair 2.60 · @2.78
2.57Expected goals
1.27Millwall xG
1.30Birmingham xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Millwall 1.3 – 1.3 Birmingham expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Birmingham to win✗
38%
2.60
2.78 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Birmingham / FT Birmingham✗
21%
4.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.21
–
Form
Millwall – last 1
L
21 Feb
vs Portsmouth
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Birmingham – last 1
W
21 Feb
@ Norwich
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Millwall and Birmingham.
What is the prediction for Millwall vs Birmingham?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Millwall vs Birmingham?
On our numbers Millwall have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Birmingham 38%.
How many goals will there be in Millwall vs Birmingham?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Millwall vs Birmingham?
Our predicted score is Millwall 1–1 Birmingham, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Millwall vs Birmingham?
Millwall vs Birmingham (Championship) kicks off on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at The Den.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sheffield Wednesday0
Coventry2
Oxford United1