Value bet: Istra 1961 to win @ 3.50 – our chance 36% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNK Varazdin to win ✓41% · @1.98
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.07
NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961 preview and prediction
The match
NK Varazdin host Istra 1961 in the HNL on Saturday 23 May, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Gradski stadion Varazdin. NK Varazdin are 5th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Istra 1961 sit 4th on 19 points (in the top four). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
NK Varazdin's last 5: WWDLW Most recently they beat HNK Rijeka 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Istra 1961's last 5: DWWLL Most recently they drew with HNK Rijeka 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
NK Varazdin arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 20 March 2026, finished Istra 1961 2–1 NK Varazdin.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for NK Varazdin and 1.3 for Istra 1961. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: NK Varazdin 41%, draw 23%, Istra 1961 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Istra 1961 to win at 3.50 – 36% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: NK Varazdin 1–1 Istra 1961. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
NK Varazdin41%fair 2.41 · @1.98
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.35
Istra 196136%fair 2.81 · @3.50
2.63Expected goals
1.38NK Varazdin xG
1.25Istra 1961 xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: NK Varazdin 1.4 – 1.3 Istra 1961 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961?
On our numbers NK Varazdin have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Istra 1961 36%.
How many goals will there be in NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961?
Our predicted score is NK Varazdin 1–1 Istra 1961, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961?
NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961 (HNL) kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Gradski stadion Varazdin.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
