Value bet: HNK Hajduk Split to win @ 1.72 – our chance 64% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultHNK Hajduk Split to win ✓64% · @1.72
Double chanceHNK Hajduk Split or draw ✓85% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.55
Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split preview and prediction
The match
Istra 1961 host HNK Hajduk Split in the HNL on Tuesday 7 April, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Stadion Aldo Drosina. Istra 1961 are 4th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top four), while HNK Hajduk Split sit 1st on 29 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Istra 1961's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat NK Varazdin 2–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
HNK Hajduk Split's last 4: WLWW Most recently they beat NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
HNK Hajduk Split arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 0.8 for Istra 1961 and 1.9 for HNK Hajduk Split. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 57%.
Safer route: HNK Hajduk Split or draw (85%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.73.
Value angle: HNK Hajduk Split to win at 1.72 – 64% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Istra 1961 0–2 HNK Hajduk Split. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Istra 196115%fair 6.51 · @4.40
Draw20%fair 4.91 · @3.55
HNK Hajduk Split64%fair 1.56 · @1.72
2.65Expected goals
0.77Istra 1961 xG
1.88HNK Hajduk Split xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Istra 1961 0.8 – 1.9 HNK Hajduk Split expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
HNK Hajduk Split to win✓
64%
1.56
1.72 ▲
Double chance
HNK Hajduk Split or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.35
Half-time result
HNK Hajduk Split ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT HNK Hajduk Split / FT HNK Hajduk Split✓
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.55
–
Form
Istra 1961 – last 5
WWLLL
20 Mar
vs NK Varazdin
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ HNK Rijeka
2–0
W
6 Mar
vs NK Osijek
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ NK Slaven Belupo
0–1
L
21 Feb
vs HNK Gorica
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
HNK Hajduk Split – last 4
WLWW
15 Mar
vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2–1
W
8 Mar
vs Dinamo Zagreb
1–3
L
22 Feb
vs HNK Rijeka
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ NK Osijek
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Istra 1961 and HNK Hajduk Split.
What is the prediction for Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split?
On our numbers Istra 1961 have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 20% and HNK Hajduk Split 64%.
How many goals will there be in Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split?
Our predicted score is Istra 1961 0–2 HNK Hajduk Split, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split?
Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split (HNL) kicks off on Tuesday 7 April 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Aldo Drosina.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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