Value bet: HNK Rijeka to win @ 2.30 – our chance 47% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultHNK Rijeka to win ✗47% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.34
HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka preview and prediction
The match
HNK Rijeka travel to Gradski stadion Velika Gorica in the HNL on Sunday 22 March (17:45 WAT) to face HNK Gorica. HNK Gorica are 10th with 7 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while HNK Rijeka sit 6th on 18 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
HNK Gorica's last 4: WLWD Most recently they beat NK Varazdin 3–1 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
HNK Rijeka's last 5: DLLWW Most recently they drew with Strasbourg 1–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.1 for HNK Gorica and 1.4 for HNK Rijeka. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: HNK Gorica 30%, draw 22%, HNK Rijeka 47%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.80.
Value angle: HNK Rijeka to win at 2.30 – 47% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: HNK Gorica 1–1 HNK Rijeka. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
HNK Gorica30%fair 3.31 · @3.00
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.10
HNK Rijeka47%fair 2.11 · @2.30
2.47Expected goals
1.05HNK Gorica xG
1.41HNK Rijeka xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
0–28%
From our goals model: HNK Gorica 1.1 – 1.4 HNK Rijeka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
HNK Rijeka to win✗
47%
2.11
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT HNK Rijeka / FT HNK Rijeka✗
27%
3.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.34
–
Form
HNK Gorica – last 4
WLWD
4 Mar
@ NK Varazdin
3–1
W
1 Mar
@ Dinamo Zagreb
2–4
L
21 Feb
@ Istra 1961
2–0
W
15 Feb
vs Vukovar
0–0
D
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
HNK Rijeka – last 6
DLLWWW
19 Mar
@ Strasbourg
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Istra 1961
0–2
L
12 Mar
vs Strasbourg
1–2
L
8 Mar
@ Vukovar
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2–0
W
26 Feb
vs Omonia Nicosia
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between HNK Gorica and HNK Rijeka.
What is the prediction for HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka?
On our numbers HNK Gorica have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 22% and HNK Rijeka 47%.
How many goals will there be in HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka?
Our predicted score is HNK Gorica 1–1 HNK Rijeka, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka?
HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka (HNL) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Gradski stadion Velika Gorica.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
