Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: VVV Venlo to win @ 1.70 – our chance 64% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVVV Venlo to win ✗64% · @1.70
Double chanceVVV Venlo or draw ✗83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.42
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗67% · @1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.56
VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax preview and prediction
The match
The Eerste Divisie sees VVV Venlo take on Jong Ajax on Tuesday 17 March, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Seacon - De Koel. VVV Venlo are 2nd with 0 points from 0 games (in the top four), while Jong Ajax sit 18th on 0 points (in the bottom three). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
VVV Venlo's last 4: LLLD Most recently they lost to MVV 1–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Jong Ajax's last 5: WLWDW Most recently they beat Den Bosch 3–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Jong Ajax arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 2.4 for VVV Venlo and 1.2 for Jong Ajax. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 67% and both teams to score at 64%.
Betting angles
Win chances: VVV Venlo 64%, draw 19%, Jong Ajax 17%.
Safer route: VVV Venlo or draw (83%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.42.
Value angle: VVV Venlo to win at 1.70 – 64% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was VVV Venlo or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: VVV Venlo 2–1 Jong Ajax. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
VVV Venlo64%fair 1.56 · @1.70
Draw19%fair 5.39 · @4.10
Jong Ajax17%fair 5.79 · @4.20
3.58Expected goals
2.40VVV Venlo xG
1.18Jong Ajax xG
64%Both score
67%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
2–08%
1–18%
3–18%
1–07%
3–06%
From our goals model: VVV Venlo 2.4 – 1.2 Jong Ajax expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
VVV Venlo
Jong Ajax
Attack vs Eerste Divisie average
+26%
-9%
Goals conceded vs average
-4%
+23%
Our expected goals here
2.79
1.37
Our own ratings from every Eerste Divisie result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
VVV Venlo to win✗
64%
1.56
1.70 ▲
Double chance
VVV Venlo or draw✗
83%
1.21
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.57
1.42
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
85%
1.18
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
54%
1.87
1.70
Half-time result
VVV Venlo ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT VVV Venlo / FT VVV Venlo✗
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.56
–
Form
VVV Venlo – last 4
LLLD
13 Mar
@ MVV
1–2
L
6 Mar
vs Waalwijk
0–3
L
27 Feb
@ ADO Den Haag
0–1
L
20 Feb
vs FC OSS
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Jong Ajax – last 6
WLWDWL
13 Mar
vs Den Bosch
3–2
W
6 Mar
@ FC Eindhoven
1–2
L
27 Feb
vs Helmond Sport
5–1
W
23 Feb
@ Emmen
0–0
D
20 Feb
@ Dordrecht
1–0
W
16 Feb
vs Cambuur
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between VVV Venlo and Jong Ajax.
What is the prediction for VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax?
Our pick is VVV Venlo or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax?
On our numbers VVV Venlo have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Jong Ajax 17%.
How many goals will there be in VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax?
Our predicted score is VVV Venlo 2–1 Jong Ajax, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax?
VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Seacon - De Koel.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
ADO Den Haag1