MVV travel to AFAS Trainingscomplex in the Eerste Divisie on Monday 16 March (20:00 WAT) to face Jong AZ. Jong AZ are 19th with 0 points from 0 games (in the bottom three), while MVV sit 8th on 0 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Jong AZ's last 5: LLLDW Most recently they lost to Waalwijk 1–2 away. They average 1.6 scored and 1.8 conceded.
MVV's last 4: WDDL Most recently they beat VVV Venlo 2–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 2.3 for Jong AZ and 1.4 for MVV. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 71% and both teams to score at 69%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Jong AZ 60%, draw 19%, MVV 21%.
Both teams to score: yes (69%) at 1.38.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Jong AZ 2–1 MVV. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Jong AZ60%fair 1.66 · @1.60
Draw19%fair 5.25 · @4.40
MVV21%fair 4.83 · @4.60
3.74Expected goals
2.33Jong AZ xG
1.41MVV xG
69%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
2–06%
2–26%
1–06%
From our goals model: Jong AZ 2.3 – 1.4 MVV expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Jong AZ
MVV
Attack vs Eerste Divisie average
+19%
-20%
Goals conceded vs average
+28%
+16%
Our expected goals here
2.49
1.60
Our own ratings from every Eerste Divisie result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Jong AZ to win✗
60%
1.66
1.60
Double chance
Either team to win✗
81%
1.24
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
69%
1.46
1.38
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.10
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.35
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.85
Half-time result
Jong AZ ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Jong AZ / FT Jong AZ✗
37%
2.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.00
–
Form
Jong AZ – last 5
LLLDW
13 Mar
@ Waalwijk
1–2
L
9 Mar
vs Emmen
2–3
L
27 Feb
@ Vitesse
0–2
L
23 Feb
vs Den Bosch
2–2
D
13 Feb
@ FC OSS
3–0
W
1.6Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
MVV – last 4
WDDL
13 Mar
vs VVV Venlo
2–1
W
6 Mar
@ Dordrecht
1–1
D
27 Feb
vs De Graafschap
3–3
D
13 Feb
@ ADO Den Haag
0–3
L
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Jong AZ and MVV.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Jong AZ vs MVV?
On our numbers Jong AZ have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 19% and MVV 21%.
How many goals will there be in Jong AZ vs MVV?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Jong AZ vs MVV?
Our predicted score is Jong AZ 2–1 MVV, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Jong AZ vs MVV?
Jong AZ vs MVV (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Monday 16 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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