Value bet: Utrecht to win @ 2.18 – our chance 51% vs 46% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUtrecht to win ✗51% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.83
Excelsior vs Utrecht preview and prediction
The match
Excelsior host Utrecht in the Eredivisie on Sunday 26 April, with kick-off at 11:15 (WAT) at Stadion Woudestein. Excelsior are 15th with 11 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Utrecht sit 14th on 12 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Excelsior's last 4: DDLL Most recently they drew with PEC Zwolle 2–2 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Utrecht's last 5: WWDWD Most recently they beat GO Ahead Eagles 2–0 at home. They average 1.4 scored and 0.2 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Utrecht arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.1 for Excelsior and 1.6 for Utrecht. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 61%.
Value angle: Utrecht to win at 2.18 – 51% on our numbers against 46% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Excelsior 1–1 Utrecht. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Excelsior28%fair 3.52 · @3.05
Draw21%fair 4.86 · @3.55
Utrecht51%fair 1.96 · @2.18
2.78Expected goals
1.14Excelsior xG
1.64Utrecht xG
61%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–210%
0–28%
1–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Excelsior 1.1 – 1.6 Utrecht expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Utrecht to win✗
51%
1.96
2.18 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Utrecht / FT Utrecht✗
30%
3.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.83
–
Form
Excelsior – last 4
DDLL
12 Apr
@ PEC Zwolle
2–2
D
20 Mar
@ Heracles
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Feyenoord
1–2
L
20 Feb
@ Fortuna Sittard
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Utrecht – last 5
WWDWD
22 Mar
vs GO Ahead Eagles
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Twente
2–0
W
6 Mar
@ Heracles
0–0
D
1 Mar
vs AZ Alkmaar
2–0
W
22 Feb
vs PEC Zwolle
1–1
D
1.4Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
20%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Excelsior and Utrecht.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Excelsior vs Utrecht?
On our numbers Excelsior have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Utrecht 51%.
How many goals will there be in Excelsior vs Utrecht?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Excelsior vs Utrecht?
Our predicted score is Excelsior 1–1 Utrecht, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Excelsior vs Utrecht?
Excelsior vs Utrecht (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 11:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Woudestein.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Heracles0
FC Volendam2