AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam prediction & analysis
85%
Footrivo pick
AZ Alkmaar or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: AZ Alkmaar to win @ 1.90 – our chance 60% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAZ Alkmaar to win ✓60% · @1.90
Double chanceAZ Alkmaar or draw ✓85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.07
AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam preview and prediction
The match
Sparta Rotterdam travel to AFAS Stadion in the Eredivisie on Sunday 22 February (16:45 WAT) to face AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar are 5th with 23 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Sparta Rotterdam sit 12th on 12 points (in the bottom half).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.1 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.0 for Sparta Rotterdam. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: AZ Alkmaar 60%, draw 25%, Sparta Rotterdam 15%.
Safer route: AZ Alkmaar or draw (85%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.50.
Value angle: AZ Alkmaar to win at 1.90 – 60% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was AZ Alkmaar or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AZ Alkmaar60%fair 1.66 · @1.90
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.65
Sparta Rotterdam15%fair 6.87 · @3.70
3.11Expected goals
2.11AZ Alkmaar xG
1.00Sparta Rotterdam xG
64%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–010%
1–19%
1–09%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: AZ Alkmaar 2.1 – 1.0 Sparta Rotterdam expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AZ Alkmaar to win✓
60%
1.66
1.90 ▲
Double chance
AZ Alkmaar or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.57
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
1.55
Half-time result
AZ Alkmaar ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AZ Alkmaar / FT AZ Alkmaar✗
40%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.07
–
Form
AZ Alkmaar – last 1
L
19 Feb
@ FC Noah
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Sparta Rotterdam – last 1
D
17 Feb
vs NEC Nijmegen
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam.
What is the prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our pick is AZ Alkmaar or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
On our numbers AZ Alkmaar have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sparta Rotterdam 15%.
How many goals will there be in AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our predicted score is AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:45 (West Africa Time) at AFAS Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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