Lech Poznan host Arka Gdynia in the Ekstraklasa on Friday 8 May, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT) at Enea Poznań.
Form guide
Lech Poznan's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Nieciecza 4–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Arka Gdynia's last 5: LDWLD Most recently they lost to Piast Gliwice 1–4 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Lech Poznan arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.3 for Lech Poznan and 0.8 for Arka Gdynia. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lech Poznan 69%, draw 20%, Arka Gdynia 11%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.65.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lech Poznan to win – a 69% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Lech Poznan 2–0 Arka Gdynia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lech Poznan69%fair 1.45 · @1.40
Draw20%fair 5.07 · @4.85
Arka Gdynia11%fair 8.72 · @6.75
3.14Expected goals
2.29Lech Poznan xG
0.85Arka Gdynia xG
59%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
3–09%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Lech Poznan 2.3 – 0.8 Arka Gdynia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lech Poznan to win✗
69%
1.45
1.40
Double chance
Lech Poznan or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
1.65
Half-time result
Lech Poznan ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lech Poznan / FT Lech Poznan✗
46%
2.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
8.81
–
Form
Lech Poznan – last 6
WWWLLW
22 Mar
vs Nieciecza
4–1
W
19 Mar
@ Shakhtar Donetsk
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Zaglebie Lubin
1–0
W
12 Mar
vs Shakhtar Donetsk
1–3
L
4 Mar
vs Gornik Zabrze
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Raków Częstochowa
4–3
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Arka Gdynia – last 6
LDWLDW
27 Apr
@ Piast Gliwice
1–4
L
12 Apr
@ Cracovia Krakow
2–2
D
7 Apr
vs Zaglebie Lubin
3–1
W
22 Mar
@ Korona Kielce
0–3
L
15 Mar
vs Widzew Łódź
0–0
D
9 Mar
@ Wisla Plock
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lech Poznan and Arka Gdynia.
What is the prediction for Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia?
Our pick is Lech Poznan to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia?
On our numbers Lech Poznan have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Arka Gdynia 11%.
How many goals will there be in Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia?
Our predicted score is Lech Poznan 2–0 Arka Gdynia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia?
Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia (Ekstraklasa) kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Enea Poznań.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
