Value bet: Raków Częstochowa to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLech Poznan to win ✓41% · @2.26
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.92
Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa preview and prediction
The match
The Ekstraklasa sees Lech Poznan take on Raków Częstochowa on Sunday 1 March, kicking off at 17:30 (WAT) at Enea Stadion. Lech Poznan are 1st with 32 points from 13 games (top of the table), while Raków Częstochowa sit 16th on 12 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Lech Poznan's last 4: WWWW Most recently they beat KuPS 1–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.4 for Lech Poznan and 1.3 for Raków Częstochowa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 62%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lech Poznan 41%, draw 23%, Raków Częstochowa 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Raków Częstochowa to win at 3.00 – 36% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Lech Poznan 1–1 Raków Częstochowa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lech Poznan41%fair 2.42 · @2.26
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.40
Raków Częstochowa36%fair 2.81 · @3.00
2.76Expected goals
1.44Lech Poznan xG
1.32Raków Częstochowa xG
62%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Lech Poznan 1.4 – 1.3 Raków Częstochowa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lech Poznan to win✓
41%
2.42
2.26
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lech Poznan / FT Lech Poznan✗
24%
4.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.92
–
Form
Lech Poznan – last 4
WWWW
26 Feb
vs KuPS
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Korona Kielce
2–1
W
19 Feb
@ KuPS
2–0
W
15 Feb
vs Piast Gliwice
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Raków Częstochowa – last 1
W
21 Feb
vs Nieciecza
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lech Poznan and Raków Częstochowa.
What is the prediction for Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa?
On our numbers Lech Poznan have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Raków Częstochowa 36%.
How many goals will there be in Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our predicted score is Lech Poznan 1–1 Raków Częstochowa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa?
Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa (Ekstraklasa) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Enea Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Nieciecza1