The Premier League sees Burnley take on Aston Villa on Sunday 10 May, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Turf Moor.
Form guide
Burnley's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Leeds 1–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game.
Aston Villa's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Nottingham Forest 4–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Aston Villa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.9 for Burnley and 1.9 for Aston Villa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Burnley 18%, draw 23%, Aston Villa 59%.
Safer route: Aston Villa or draw (82%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Burnley 0–2 Aston Villa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Burnley18%fair 5.55 · @4.75
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @4.00
Aston Villa59%fair 1.68 · @1.64
2.81Expected goals
0.93Burnley xG
1.88Aston Villa xG
57%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–111%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%
From our goals model: Burnley 0.9 – 1.9 Aston Villa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aston Villa to win✗
59%
1.68
1.64
Double chance
Aston Villa or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.38
Half-time result
Aston Villa ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aston Villa / FT Aston Villa✗
38%
2.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.81
–
Form
Burnley – last 5
LLLLD
1 May
@ Leeds
1–3
L
22 Apr
vs Manchester City
0–1
L
19 Apr
@ Nottingham Forest
1–4
L
3 Mar
@ Everton
0–2
L
21 Feb
@ Chelsea
1–1
D
0.6Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Aston Villa – last 6
WLWWWW
7 May
vs Nottingham Forest
4–0
W
30 Apr
@ Nottingham Forest
0–1
L
19 Apr
vs Sunderland
4–3
W
16 Apr
vs Bologna
4–0
W
9 Apr
@ Bologna
3–1
W
22 Mar
vs West Ham
2–0
W
2.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Burnley and Aston Villa.
What is the prediction for Burnley vs Aston Villa?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Burnley vs Aston Villa?
On our numbers Burnley have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Aston Villa 59%.
How many goals will there be in Burnley vs Aston Villa?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Aston Villa?
Our predicted score is Burnley 0–2 Aston Villa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Burnley vs Aston Villa?
Burnley vs Aston Villa (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Turf Moor.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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