Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
7/10Rating
1.67Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultNewcastle to win ✗68% · @1.67
Double chanceNewcastle or draw ✗88% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.04
Newcastle vs Sunderland preview and prediction
The match
Sunderland travel to St. James' Park in the Premier League on Sunday 22 March (13:00 WAT) to face Newcastle. Newcastle are 12th with 12 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Sunderland sit 19th on 8 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Newcastle's last 5: LDWWW Most recently they lost to Barcelona 2–7 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game.
Sunderland's last 5: LWDLW Most recently they lost to Port Vale 0–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Newcastle arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Newcastle and 0.7 for Sunderland. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 52%.
Our pre-match pick was Newcastle to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.67, above our fair price of 1.48, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Newcastle 1–0 Sunderland. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Newcastle68%fair 1.48 · @1.67
Draw20%fair 4.96 · @3.70
Sunderland12%fair 8.29 · @5.00
2.62Expected goals
1.95Newcastle xG
0.67Sunderland xG
52%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–07%
From our goals model: Newcastle 1.9 – 0.7 Sunderland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newcastle to win✗
68%
1.48
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Newcastle or draw✗
88%
1.14
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.35
Half-time result
Newcastle ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newcastle / FT Newcastle✗
44%
2.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.04
–
Form
Newcastle – last 5
LDWWW
18 Mar
@ Barcelona
2–7
L
10 Mar
vs Barcelona
1–1
D
4 Mar
vs Manchester United
2–1
W
24 Feb
vs Qarabag
3–2
W
18 Feb
@ Qarabag
6–1
W
2.8Scored / game
2.4Conceded / game
100%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Sunderland – last 5
LWDLW
8 Mar
@ Port Vale
0–1
L
3 Mar
@ Leeds
1–0
W
28 Feb
@ Bournemouth
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Fulham
1–3
L
15 Feb
@ Oxford United
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newcastle and Sunderland.
What is the prediction for Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Our pick is Newcastle to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Newcastle vs Sunderland?
On our numbers Newcastle have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sunderland 12%.
How many goals will there be in Newcastle vs Sunderland?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Our predicted score is Newcastle 1–0 Sunderland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Newcastle vs Sunderland (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at St. James' Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
West Ham0